PIB TrackerEl Nino likely to persist to February 2027
An indigenous AI-based prediction system puts the probability at 70-90%, while the minister cautioned that monsoon outcomes depend on several other climate drivers besides El Nino.
What happened
- El Nino conditions developed in May 2026 and are likely to persist to February 2027.
- Forecast probabilities range between 70 and 90 per cent.
- The assessment uses INCOIS's indigenous AI/ML-based ENSO prediction system.
- It provides probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty estimates.
- The minister cautioned that the Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation also shape the monsoon.
For Prelims
- El Nino: the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific; often but not always linked to weak Indian monsoons.
- The forecast: developed May 2026, likely to persist to February 2027 at 70-90% probability.
- INCOIS: the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad — under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): the sea-surface temperature gradient across the Indian Ocean; a positive IOD can offset El Nino's effect.
- Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): an eastward-moving pulse of cloud and rainfall affecting intra-seasonal monsoon activity.
- Why probabilistic: forecasts with uncertainty estimates support contingency planning better than single-point predictions.
For UPSC: A climatology item with policy edge. Use it for ENSO and the Indian monsoon, the Indian Ocean Dipole and MJO as modulating factors, AI in weather and climate prediction, and drought contingency planning for Rabi.
What it is NOT: El Nino persisting does not mean drought is forecast — the minister explicitly noted that monsoon outcomes depend on several climate drivers, not El Nino alone.
For Mains
Syllabus: GS1.10 · GS3.4 · Linkage L2
Anchor
The Pacific stays warm into the winter — and Indian farm planning has to price the uncertainty.
Substantiation (data)
INCOIS's indigenous AI/ML ENSO system puts El Nino persistence from June 2026 to February 2027 at a 70-90% probability, with uncertainty estimates attached.
Exemplification
The explicit caution that the Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation also drive the monsoon is why El Nino years have not uniformly meant drought.
Problematisation
Long-range forecasts remain probabilistic; translating them into district-level cropping and reservoir decisions is where the value is won or lost.
Way-forward
Push agro-advisories to farmers ahead of Rabi sowing, plan reservoir releases against the forecast range, and keep investing in indigenous prediction capability.
Position
Forecasting skill is only useful if it reaches the person deciding what to sow.
Deploys into: Physical geography + agriculture (GS1.10, GS3.4) · ENSO and the monsoon, IOD and MJO, AI in climate prediction, and drought contingency planning.
Ministry of Earth Sciences · 2026-08-05 · PRID 2294888 · PIB source ↗