India's economy grew 7.7% in 2025-26, provisional data shows

MoSPI's provisional estimates put real GDP growth at 7.7% for the full year and 7.8% in the January–March quarter, keeping India the fastest-growing major economy.

What happened

• The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the Provisional Estimates (PE) of annual GDP for FY2025-26 and quarterly estimates for Q4 (January–March).
• Real GDP (at constant 2022-23 prices) is estimated to have grown 7.7% in FY2025-26, up from 7.1% in FY2024-25, reaching a level of ₹323.12 lakh crore.
• In Q4 (Jan–Mar) of FY2025-26, real GDP is estimated to have grown 7.8%.
• Nominal GDP (at current prices) reached ₹346.36 lakh crore, a growth of 8.9% over the previous year.
• Real Gross Value Added (GVA) grew 7.9% to ₹294.91 lakh crore (against 7.3% the year before), with nominal GVA at ₹314.87 lakh crore.
• The numbers use the new National Accounts series with base year 2022-23, released on 27 February 2026; being provisional, they update the Second Advance Estimates now that Q4 data is in.

For Prelims

• GDP vs GVA: GDP = GVA + (taxes on products − subsidies on products). GVA measures output from the producer's side; the gap between the two growth rates reflects the net indirect-tax/subsidy position — a classic prelims distinction.
• Real vs Nominal: Real GDP is inflation-adjusted (at constant 2022-23 prices) and shows true volume growth (7.7%); Nominal GDP is at current prices (8.9%). The gap (~1.2 points) is the implicit GDP deflator, a broad economy-wide inflation measure.
• Base-year revision: the series now uses base year 2022-23 (shifted from 2011-12), released 27 Feb 2026 — base years are periodically updated so the basket reflects the current economy. Knowing the current base year is a high-probability fact.
• The estimate ladder: MoSPI issues First/Second Advance Estimates → Provisional Estimates (this release, with Q4 in) → First/Second Revised Estimates. Each stage adds more actual data, so figures get revised.
• Key levels to hold: real GDP ₹323.12 lakh crore, nominal GDP ₹346.36 lakh crore; growth 7.7% (real) and 8.9% (nominal) for FY2025-26.
• Who compiles it: the National Statistical Office (NSO) under MoSPI compiles the National Accounts — a useful institution to name.
• 'Fastest-growing major economy': at 7.7%, India remains among the fastest-growing large economies — a recurring statement-question hook, but tie it to the real (not nominal) figure.
• Expenditure side: GDP is also read via consumption, investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation), government spending and net exports — the components MoSPI publishes alongside the headline.

For Mains

Syllabus: GS3.1 · GS3.2 · Linkage L2